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POPSIt's Official: U.S. in a Recession Want to prove wrong the pundits who, earlier in the year, insisted the U.S. was not in a recession. Here's your answer. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the leading arbiter on these sorts of things, says the U.S. has been in a recession following a peak of economic activity in December 2007. Not that anyone hasn't already noticed.
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POPSNot Rubinomics Part II Nice take from NYT's Jackie Calmes on the influence of Bob Rubin on Obama's economic team. But don't expect the Obama era to be a reprise of Rubinomics, which focused on balanced budgets and deregulation. There's going to be much deficit spending and a shift towards regulation in the next few years.
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POPSGet Ready for Serious Government Spending Democrats may have "kicked the can down the road" on giving Detroit's Big 3 aid this week, as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid reportedly said. But it sounds like Congress and the next administration are ready to open the floodgates to government spending. That may not be a bad thing. Remember the old formula from economics class: GDP=Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports? When everything else is down, Uncle Sam sometimes has to step in to fill the gap. It also means Democrats' promises not to spend more without raising taxes or reducing spending elsewhere is probably out the window. Goodbye pay-go, hello stimulus!
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POPSPelosi and Reid Tell Detroit What They Want Democratic leaders outline specifically what they want GM, Chrysler, and Ford to include in their plans for viability and accountability, if they are to receive taxpayer money for emergency assistance. The Big Three are expected to reply to Congress by Dec. 2.
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POPSNapolitano to DHS Obama's selection of Napolitano as Homeland Security Secretary shows that he's thinking about immigration policy. But DHS encompasses a lot more than just immigration--including cyber security, transportation security and disaster relief. What are your thoughts on Napolitano and Obama's other reported Cabinet picks--Eric Holder as Attorney General and Tom Daschle as HHS Secretary? And what of Hillary Clinton as a potential Secretary of State?
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POPSChicken a la Detroit The White House and congressional Democrats seem to be playing chicken over a bailout for the auto industry. The WH wants to cut some of the strings on $25 billion in loans that can go to the Big Three fairly quickly. Dems say the WH has the power to give the auto industry a portion of its $700 billion TARP funds immediately. The unknown variable: will a bankruptcy filing by any of Detroit's Big 3 tip the recession into an even deeper downturn? Is that a risk the government should take right now? Do you think Washington should give Detroit a lifeline? Post your comments below.
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POPSOrszag As Budget Chief? A good choice for Obama, if this report is true. Orszag is one of the top budget experts in Washington, and he'd be a young face in the next administration.
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POPSGM's Capitol Hill Lobbying Even though there's much speculation that TARP funds will be tapped to rescue automakers, only a handful of Democratic senators have officially supported such a proposal. Get ready for a difficult week of bargaining in Washington.
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POPSLarry Summers for Treasury Secretary Of course he's not the only one being mentioned to replace Hank Paulson if Obama wins on Tuesday. Other notables: FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. Here's a comprehensive list from Politico on what an Obama administration might look like.
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POPSPaulson's Folly Insightful take by WashPost's Pearlstein on what's gone wrong with the bailout.
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POPSCredit Cards: Who gets the rate increase? That's the big question here. Also, doesn't this make it more difficult to pay? Seems to parallel the teaser rates on mortgage loans--when rates jumped, borrowers couldn't pay, exacerbating the problem.
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POPSIs $700 Billion Enough? With so many groups (insurance companies, automakers, private and public banks) vying for a slice of the pie, it's questionable whether the government's $700 billion allotted for a bailout is enough.
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POPSEconomic Summit in D.C. Nov. 15 Don't expect a Bretton Woods for financial regulation. The most far-reaching thing that can come out of this meeting is a set of international principles, but even that's a stretch. Consider it, instead, as an orientation session for the next U.S. president, who is also expected to attend.
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POPSCandidates are Late to the Party As the administration unveils the newest aspect of the bailout plan, McCain (and Obama yesterday) announce new twists on their own economic plans. The attention they're giving to the economy is welcome--though a bit late, just before their final presidential debate and three weeks before the election. Their presence in Washington in the middle of the congressional bailout debate did as much to disrupt the discussions as anything else.
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POPSHave We Reached Bottom? Six months from now, remember Bernanke's comments. Six months ago, Paulson said he thought the worst was behind us.
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POPSAnd so the bailout begins... If Mr. Kashkari, is only going to be in his post for three months, that's a pretty good indication that the administration plans to use all $700 billion right away.
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